Informe de energía y petróleo: Temores de sobreoferta mitigados por tensión geopolitica

TL;DR

Oil market closed January 2026 with an unexpected price increase, the first positive monthly performance in six months.
Geopolitical factors, including US-Iran tensions and climate disruptions in North America, supported oil prices.
OPEC+ maintained its decision to pause production increases in Q1 2026 to avoid market saturation.
The capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and subsequent policy changes have significantly altered the country's oil export landscape.
A new Venezuelan Hydrocarbons Law allows private sector participation in exploration and production, marking a shift from nationalization.
Venezuela is reorienting oil exports towards the North American market, suspending shipments to Cuba and redirecting from China.
US oil service companies like Baker Hughes are preparing to resume operations in Venezuela.
Venezuelan crude oil production in the reported week was 861 Mbpd, with Chevron contributing 232 Mbpd.
Venezuelan crude prices averaged $56/BBL, reflecting international market increases.
Citgo's protection regarding PDVSA 2020 bonds was extended by OFAC until March 20, 2026.

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